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The twenty imports Brazil is best placed to replace.

Brazil imported USD 215bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 96bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well, with how concentrated the supply of each is.

USD 18bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
430products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
527products Brazil already exports well
1746product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Brazil already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Brazil would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Brazil does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310230

    Comes fromRussia 91%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMatches: other than pyrotechnic articles of heading no. 3604 (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 4.1bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 299m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Russia supplies 91 per cent (2).

    USD 299mdown 11% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chlorideHS 310420

    Comes fromRussia 41%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 23m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 92m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 3.9bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3); Russia supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 3.9bndown 59% on 2022
  3. 3

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of...HS 870421

    Comes fromArgentina 84%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston... (exports USD 1.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 294m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 110m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 3.6bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 3.6bnup 27% on 2022
  4. 4

    Herbicides, anti-sprouting products and plant-growth regulators: other than containing goods of Subheading Note 1 to...HS 380893

    Comes fromChina 66%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFungicides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Note... (exports USD 169m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 140m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 2.1bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.1bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); China supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 2.1bndown 39% on 2022
  5. 5

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390140

    Comes fromUnited States 79%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEthylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific... (exports USD 469m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 17m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 911m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 812m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); United States supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 812mup 23% on 2022
  6. 6

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity...HS 870333

    Comes fromArgentina 98%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 55m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 4.0bn
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 656m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 656mup 26% on 2022
  7. 7

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromRussia 57%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 116m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 4.1bn
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 549m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Russia supplies 57 per cent (1).

    USD 549mdown 64% on 2022
  8. 8

    Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or lessHS 220421

    Comes fromChile 42%, 39 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJuice: of single citrus fruit (excluding orange, grapefruit or... (exports USD 31m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 9m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 43m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 485m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Chile supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 485mup 10% on 2022
  9. 9

    Non-alcoholic beverages: other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or...HS 220299

    Comes fromAustria 65%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding (exports USD 616m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 18m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 164m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 192m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); Austria supplies 65 per cent (2).

    USD 192mdown 20% on 2022
  10. 10

    Iron or steel: grinding balls and similar articles for mills, forged or stamped, but not further workedHS 732611

    Comes fromChina 69%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 7k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 623m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 141m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); China supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 141mdown 8% on 2022
  11. 11

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)HS 401110

    Comes fromChina 71%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 519m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 1.1bn
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 897m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 897mup 67% on 2022
  12. 12

    Alcohols: saturated monohydric, methanol (methyl alcohol)HS 290511

    Comes fromTrinidad and Tobago 33%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 414m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 729m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3).

    USD 729mup 16% on 2022
  13. 13

    Sodium hydroxide (caustic soda): in aqueous solution (soda lye or liquid soda)HS 281512

    Comes fromUnited States 96%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 40m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 612m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); United States supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 612mdown 47% on 2022
  14. 14

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 27%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEthylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific... (exports USD 469m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 144m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 351m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 599m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3).

    USD 599mup 32% on 2022
  15. 15

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus...HS 310311

    Comes fromMorocco 70%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 541m
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 591m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1); Morocco supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 591mdown 29% on 2022
  16. 16

    Insulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets of a kind used in vehicles, aircraft or shipsHS 854430

    Comes fromParaguay 48%, 74 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 110m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 777m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 550m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Paraguay supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 550mup 28% on 2022
  17. 17

    Engines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines (diesel or semi-diesel engines), of a kind used for...HS 840820

    Comes fromArgentina 44%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSeeders, planters and transplanters: no-till direct seeders... (exports USD 67m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 259m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 497m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 517m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 517mdown 20% on 2022
  18. 18

    Vegetable preparations: potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, frozenHS 200410

    Comes fromArgentina 52%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 19m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 457m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 457mup 21% on 2022
  19. 19

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with aluminium zinc-alloysHS 721061

    Comes fromChina 99%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSteel: stainless: line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines... (exports USD 8m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 20m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 896m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 421m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 421mup 2% on 2022
  20. 20

    Carbonates: disodium carbonateHS 283620

    Comes fromUnited States 54%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 138k; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 64m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 287m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2); United States supplies 54 per cent (1).

    USD 287mdown 49% on 2022

The bill and its path, the sources and their unit values, who exports the line well, the nearest strengths, the public buyers where a country publishes them, and the method. We reply by email. Privacy

One line per customs heading. Products Brazil already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Fungicides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Note 1 to this... imports USD 794m, exports USD 169m, top source India 30%
  • Compressors: of a kind used in refrigerating equipment imports USD 643m, exports USD 278m, top source China 70%
  • Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of... imports USD 623m, exports USD 469m, top source United States 64%
  • Boilers: watertube boilers with a steam production exceeding 45t per hour imports USD 145m, exports USD 12m, top source Switzerland 45%
  • Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, line pipe of... imports USD 354m, exports USD 246m, top source Germany 80%
  • Engines: reciprocating piston engines, of a kind used for the propulsion of... imports USD 192m, exports USD 96m, top source South Korea 98%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including mixtures... imports USD 106m, exports USD 23m, top source Netherlands 71%
  • Harvesting machinery: n.e.c. in heading no. 8433 imports USD 259m, exports USD 191m, top source United States 79%
  • Acyclic hydrocarbons: unsaturated, n.e.c. in heading no. 2901 imports USD 145m, exports USD 89m, top source United States 97%
  • Steel, stainless: seamless, casing and tubing, of a kind used in drilling for... imports USD 94m, exports USD 45m, top source Japan 37%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 1746 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-03. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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