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The 14 imports Estonia is best placed to replace.

Estonia imported USD 19bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 15bn. These are the 14 that sit closest to what it already makes well, with how concentrated the supply of each is.

USD 880mthe 14, imported in 2024
16products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
1154products Estonia already exports well
1,497public purchases of goods joined to a product family, from Tenders Electronic Daily (EU)
The 14

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Estonia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Estonia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition carries public buyers from Tenders Electronic Daily (EU), 4,154 award notices from 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, joined to each product's customs heading through a crosswalk we authored. The buyers are shown as context and do not change the score, because award values in these records include framework ceilings and outliers that would distort it. The regional layer (where the capability sits) is built only where a country publishes regional trade by product, and Estonia does not publish it in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromGermany 22%, 64 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMedicaments: containing antibiotics (other than penicillins... (exports USD 14m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 79m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 61m
    Public buyers in the family9 awards from 4 buyers. Most frequent: Sihtasutus Viljandi Haigla

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 505m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1).

    USD 505mup 23% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromFinland 40%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWashing and cleaning preparations: powders, flakes and granules... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Public buyers in the family8 awards from 1 buyer. Most frequent: Aktsiaselts Lääne-Tallinna Keskhaigla

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); Finland supplies 40 per cent (1).

    USD 35mdown 67% on 2022
  3. 3

    Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially colouredHS 252329

    Comes fromLatvia 100%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical energy (exports USD 197m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Public buyers in the family10 awards from 6 buyers. Most frequent: Päästeamet

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 37 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 25mup 14% on 2022
  4. 4

    Non-alcoholic beverages: other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or...HS 220299

    Comes fromLithuania 31%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSauces and preparations therefor: mixed condiments and mixed... (exports USD 56m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 35m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 65m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1).

    USD 65mup 57% on 2022
  5. 5

    Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: n.e.c. in chapter 18HS 180690

    Comes fromLatvia 22%, 64 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 35m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 42m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (1).

    USD 42mup 24% on 2022
  6. 6

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromPoland 30%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 39m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1).

    USD 39mdown 5% on 2022
  7. 7

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of polymers of ethylene, non-cellular and not...HS 392010

    Comes fromFinland 19%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 10m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 11m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 38m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1).

    USD 38mdown 14% on 2022
  8. 8

    Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feedingHS 230990

    Comes fromGermany 21%, 40 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFood preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10 (exports USD 85m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1).

    USD 35mdown 5% on 2022
  9. 9

    Slag wool, rock wool and similar mineral wools (including intermixtures thereof), in bulk, sheets or rollsHS 680610

    Comes fromPoland 52%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthExfoliated vermiculite, expanded clays, foamed slag and similar... (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Public buyers in the family2 awards from 2 buyers. Most frequent: As Hoolekandeteenused

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 36 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); Poland supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 25mdown 12% on 2022
  10. 10

    Vegetable preparations: potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozenHS 200520

    Comes fromPoland 44%, 43 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJams, fruit jellies, marmalades, fruit or nut puree and fruit or nut... (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 20m, top 48 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1); Poland supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 20mup 20% on 2022
  11. 11

    Glass fibres: glass wool and articles thereofHS 701980

    Comes fromFinland 67%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGlass: multiple-walled insulating units of glass (exports USD 15m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 335k
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 16m, top 63 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1); Finland supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 16mdown 10% on 2022
  12. 12

    Plaster, or plaster compositions: boards, sheets, panels, tiles and similar articles, faced or reinforced with paper...HS 680911

    Comes fromLatvia 70%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 431k
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 13m, top 73 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 13mdown 25% on 2022
  13. 13

    Oriented strand board (OSB) of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substancesHS 441012

    Comes fromLatvia 75%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 11m, top 91 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 11mdown 39% on 2022
  14. 14

    Iron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in...HS 720854

    Comes fromLatvia 73%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, width 600mm or... (exports USD 550k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 247k; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 103m
    Public buyers in the familynone matched to this product family

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 11m, top 93 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 73 per cent (2).

    USD 11mup 14% on 2022

The bill and its path, the sources and their unit values, who exports the line well, the nearest strengths, the public buyers where a country publishes them, and the method. We reply by email. Privacy

One line per customs heading. Products Estonia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and... imports USD 533m, exports USD 143m, top source Sweden 30%
  • Telephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks imports USD 503m, exports USD 287m, top source China 39%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 280m, exports USD 130m, top source Czech Republic 31%
  • Cocoa: butter, fat and oil imports USD 280m, exports USD 171m, top source Indonesia 46%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 150m, exports USD 55m, top source Germany 49%
  • Chromium oxides and hydroxides: excluding chromium trioxide imports USD 94m, exports USD 1m, top source Kazakhstan 100%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 107m, exports USD 36m, top source Germany 32%
  • Printing machinery: parts and accessories, n.e.c. in item no. 8443.91 imports USD 117m, exports USD 63m, top source Japan 50%
  • Iron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (not... imports USD 64m, exports USD 12m, top source Turkey 54%
  • Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder... imports USD 207m, exports USD 160m, top source Czech Republic 37%
How the 14 were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 391 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Public buyers, context only, never scored: 4,154 award notices from Tenders Electronic Daily (EU), 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, of which 1,971 were classified by the buyer as goods and 1,497 joined to a product family through a crosswalk we authored, because no official one exists. Only notices whose code names a specific product group are joined; broad division codes are left out. The join is a family, not an exact line, and the counts are a floor.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-03. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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