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The twenty imports Japan is best placed to replace.

Japan imported USD 431bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 659bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well, with how concentrated the supply of each is.

USD 25bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
184products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
1381products Japan already exports well
2281product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Japan already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Japan would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Japan does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Machinery: parts and accessories (other than covers, carrying cases and the like) of the machines of heading no. 8471HS 847330

    Comes fromChina 63%, 67 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical apparatus: photosensitive semiconductor devices, light... (exports USD 2.4bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.1bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); China supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 2.1bndown 3% on 2022
  2. 2

    Semiconductor media: solid-state non-volatile storage devices, whether or not recorded, excluding products of Chapter 37HS 852351

    Comes fromTaiwan 41%, 55 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542 (exports USD 13bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 795m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 152m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Taiwan supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 1.1bnup 20% on 2022
  3. 3

    Ethers: acyclic, and their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives, other than diethyl etherHS 290919

    Comes fromUnited States 93%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHalogenated derivatives of acyclic hydrocarbons containing two or... (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 62m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 52m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.5bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); United States supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 1.5bndown 25% on 2022
  4. 4

    Vehicle parts: road wheels and parts and accessories thereofHS 870870

    Comes fromChina 70%, 55 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicle parts: brakes, servo-brakes and parts thereof (exports USD 1.4bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 297m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 861m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); China supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 1.4bndown 5% on 2022
  5. 5

    Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of liquid crystals, with drivers or...HS 852491

    Comes fromChina 83%, 42 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFlat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating... (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 722m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 35m
    Countries that export it well6

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.3bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); China supplies 83 per cent (2).

    USD 1.3bnup 8% on 2022
  6. 6

    Vacuum cleaners, with self-contained electric motor, of a power not exceeding 1,500 W and having a dust bag or other...HS 850811

    Comes fromChina 77%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBearings: spherical roller bearings (exports USD 199m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 113m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 702m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); China supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 702mdown 7% on 2022
  7. 7

    Wrist-watches: (not electrically operated), automatic winding, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility...HS 910121

    Comes fromSwitzerland 94%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWatch movements: complete and assembled, with automatic winding (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 38m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 295m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 621m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1); Switzerland supplies 94 per cent (2).

    USD 621mup 51% on 2022
  8. 8

    Ovens: microwave, of a kind used for domestic purposesHS 851650

    Comes fromChina 73%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 10 more lines in the heading, USD 1.5bn
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 385m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 73 per cent (2).

    USD 385mdown 18% on 2022
  9. 9

    Cell cultures, whether or not modified: cell therapy productsHS 300251

    Comes fromUnited States 95%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHalogenated derivatives of acyclic hydrocarbons containing two or... (exports USD 26m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 66k; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 3.3bn
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 215m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); United States supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 215mup 197% on 2022
  10. 10

    Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and...HS 851762

    Comes fromChina 44%, 71 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMonitors other than cathode-ray tube: n.e.c. in subheading 8528.52... (exports USD 407m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.2bn; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 17bn
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 6.5bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); China supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 6.5bndown 9% on 2022
  11. 11

    Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kNHS 841112

    Comes fromUnited States 46%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTurbines: parts of turbo-jets and turbo-propellers (exports USD 4.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 782m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 556m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 3.6bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1); United States supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 3.6bnup 30% on 2022
  12. 12

    Lenses, contact: unmounted, of any material, excluding elements of glass not optically workedHS 900130

    Comes fromIreland 32%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInstruments and apparatus: n.e.c. in heading no. 9030, with a... (exports USD 51m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 41m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 195m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2).

    USD 1.4bnup 1% on 2022
  13. 13

    Fans: n.e.c. in item no. 8414.51HS 841459

    Comes fromChina 55%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectric motors: of an output not exceeding 37.5W (exports USD 599m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 379m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 335m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 845m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); China supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 845mup 9% on 2022
  14. 14

    Artificial parts of the body: excluding artificial jointsHS 902139

    Comes fromUnited States 46%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMedical, surgical instruments and appliances: electro-diagnostic... (exports USD 1.5bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 37m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 1.9bn
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 754m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); United States supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 754mdown 1% on 2022
  15. 15

    Units of automatic data processing machines: n.e.c. in item no. 8471.50, 8471.60 or 8471.70HS 847180

    Comes fromChina 58%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical apparatus: photosensitive semiconductor devices, light... (exports USD 2.4bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 130m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 17bn
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 707m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 58 per cent (1).

    USD 707mdown 11% on 2022
  16. 16

    Moulds: for rubber or plastics, injection or compression typesHS 848071

    Comes fromChina 58%, 36 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachinery: injection-moulding machines, for working rubber or... (exports USD 817m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 320m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 17m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 543m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1); China supplies 58 per cent (1).

    USD 543mdown 8% on 2022
  17. 17

    Golf equipment: other than clubs and ballsHS 950639

    Comes fromChina 57%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 84m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 703m
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 357m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 57 per cent (1).

    USD 357mdown 40% on 2022
  18. 18

    Glass: rear-view mirrors for vehiclesHS 700910

    Comes fromUnited States 78%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 79m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 69m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 291m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); United States supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 291mdown 2% on 2022
  19. 19

    Vacuum flasks and other vacuum vessels, complete with cases: parts thereof other than glass innersHS 961700

    Comes fromChina 67%, 34 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 20m
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 252m, top 14 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); China supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 252mdown 4% on 2022
  20. 20

    Washing machines: household or laundry-type, of a dry linen capacity exceeding 10kgHS 845020

    Comes fromChina 95%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCompressors: of a kind used in refrigerating equipment (exports USD 1.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 35m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 780m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 231m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); China supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 231mdown 13% on 2022

The bill and its path, the sources and their unit values, who exports the line well, the nearest strengths, the public buyers where a country publishes them, and the method. We reply by email. Privacy

One line per customs heading. Products Japan already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological... imports USD 8.9bn, exports USD 7.2bn, top source United States 31%
  • Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with... imports USD 1.3bn, exports USD 688m, top source Switzerland 97%
  • Medical, surgical instruments and appliances: catheters, cannulae and the like imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.3bn, top source United States 30%
  • Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 3.0bn, exports USD 2.4bn, top source United States 39%
  • Heterocyclic compounds: with oxygen hetero-atom(s) only, containing an unfused... imports USD 544m, exports USD 96m, top source Italy 49%
  • Games: video game consoles and machines, other than those of subheading 9504.30 imports USD 1.7bn, exports USD 1.3bn, top source China 88%
  • Radar apparatus imports USD 695m, exports USD 315m, top source Philippines 45%
  • Silicon: containing by weight not less than 99.99% of silicon imports USD 624m, exports USD 258m, top source United States 66%
  • Monitors other than cathode-ray tube: n.e.c. in subheading 8528.52, whether or... imports USD 672m, exports USD 407m, top source China 46%
  • Magnets: permanent magnets and articles intended to become permanent magnets... imports USD 569m, exports USD 429m, top source Philippines 32%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 2281 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-03. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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